Fed: Labor set to go ahead with Iraq troop withdrawal

AAP General News (Australia)
12-20-2007
Fed: Labor set to go ahead with Iraq troop withdrawal

By Max Blenkin, Defence Correspondent

CANBERRA, AAP - Australian combat troops will pull out of southern Iraq in the middle
of 2008, fulfilling the Rudd government's promise to exit what it says has been Australia's
greatest strategic policy failure since the Vietnam War.

But not all defence personnel are leaving: the 110-member Baghdad security detachment
will still perform a combat role.

Another 500 personnel will remain at bases around the Persian Gulf, including 190 aboard
the frigate HMAS Arunta, 150 operating with C-130 hercules transport aircraft and 170
flying a pair of AP-3C Orion surveillance aircraft.

By the time troops from the Overwatch Battle Group at Tallil in Iraq start preparing
for their trip home, more than 1,000 Australian soldiers will be based in Oruzgan Province
in south-central Afghanistan, fighting a resurgent Taliban.

The new Labor government remains fully committed to the Afghanistan mission, accusing
its coalition predecessor of making a grave mistake in withdrawing troops on two earlier
occasions and allowing the former Taliban regime and their al-Qaeda allies to re-emerge.

The government has left open the possibility of sending even more troops to what has
already proved the most deadly Australian military mission since Vietnam. Three soldiers
died in Afghanistan within just six weeks in October and November this year.

Trooper David Pearce was killed by a roadside bomb, Sergeant Matthew Locke shot dead
by insurgents and Private Luke Worsley killed during an attack on a Taliban bomb-making
facility.

No-one could accuse the previous government of downplaying the risks.

"There is the distinct possibility of casualties and that should be understood and
prepared for by the Australian public," former prime minister John Howard said in April.

While Afghanistan seems to be inching towards the precipice, Iraq appears to be on
the mend, with incidents of violence dramatically down from the dark days a year ago when
every news bulletin seemed to feature a fresh bombing outrage.

That improvement has been attributed to the US troop surge, with 162,000 American soldiers
now on the ground in Iraq.

It's also been attributed to an unexpected development, the so-called Sunni Awakening,
in which local tribes, previously enthusiastic supporters of the insurgency, threw in
their lot with the Iraqi government.

That's meant that provinces such as Anbar, once the most violent, are now among the
most peaceful as the activities of al-Qaeda insurgents have been curtailed dramatically
.

At the same time, Shi'ite power brokers have sought to rein in their militia groups.

In August, firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr ordered his militia JAM (Jaish al Mahdi)
to stand down. JAM was blamed for much of the violence encountered by Australian and British
forces in southern Iraq.

Iraq's politicians have proved less successful at ironing out their differences.

It's still unclear whether the undoubted improvements can be judged sufficiently sustainable
to allow the US to draw down troop numbers.

Similarly, opinions vary on just how bad it is in Afghanistan. The Senlis Council,
a Paris-based thinktank, warned in November the conflict in Afghanistan had reached crisis
proportions, with the Taliban present in more than half the country and closing in on
the capital Kabul.

NATO disagrees, saying the situation was difficult in some parts of the south but the
Taliban could claim to actually control no more than a few isolated districts.

US strategic think-tank Stratfor says "holding and controlling" were nebulous terms
for Afghanistan and depended more on just who happened to be standing on a particular
piece of ground at a particular moment.

"When districts change hands is it often simply a matter of Afghan national or Taliban
forces driving the other off without any real staying power," it said in a recent analysis.

"Locals in Afghanistan are often adept at playing both sides."

Senlis's principal concern was that NATO's 41,000 troops aren't enough, suggesting
more like 80,000 are needed.

Australia has a related gripe: many national contingents in Afghanistan - such as
Germany, Italy, Spain, France - are located in lower-risk areas of the north with restrictive
caveats on how their troops may be deployed.

Fortunately for Australia, the Netherlands has decided to extend its mission to Afghanistan
for another two years. Australia's task group operates within the larger 1,400-member
Dutch force, relying extensively on their attack helicopters, jet fighters and artillery
for support.

Former defence minister Brendan Nelson was so concerned at the prospects of a Dutch
withdrawal he warned that Australia could not go it alone and might have to pull out.

So what else can defence expect of the new Labor government?

In reality, there won't be great changes. Labor has promised to maintain funding and
to stick to contracts for equipment purchases, such as Super Hornets, signed by the previous
government.

New Foreign Minister Stephen Smith is making an early trip to the US, reassuring the
Bush administration the Anzus alliance will come to no harm.

There will be a new defence white paper, and not before time. The last was in 2000,
albeit with some incremental updates.

A new white paper will take into account the broad security challenges posed by Islamic
terrorism, climate change and failing regional states.

With Iraq out of the way, there will be a greater emphasis on regional relationships
and partnerships.

New attention will be paid to civil-military cooperation, known as CIMIC, as many western
armies have come to realise they are not very good at rebuilding in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Among the millions thrust at voters in the formerly Liberal-held seat of Eden Monaro
was $5 million to establish the Asia-Pacific centre for civil-military cooperation for
Queanbeyan.

Defence force families will receive progressively free dental and health care, a significant
incentive for personnel to stay on.

However, Labor's official 2007 election defence policy makes no mention of a proposal
pushed since 1998 - a national coast guard, combining navy patrol boats, customs vessels
and Coastwatch.

The Howard government argued it wasn't necessary as existing arrangements for border
security, including the new border protection command, were perfectly adequate.

Labor in government seems to agree.

AAP mb/rl/sp

KEYWORD: YEARENDER DEFENCE

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